Passage Summary: A candidate is stuck in a situation where both available options lead to the exact same failure.

Conclusion: Thompson is certain to lose the upcoming election.

Reasoning: If Thompson appeals to moderates, he loses his base; if he doesn't, he loses the moderates to his opponent. Both paths lead to insufficient votes for a win.

Analysis: This structure is known as a constructive dilemma: 'If A then C, and if Not A then C; therefore, C.' It presents two exhaustive possibilities and shows that the outcome is the same regardless of which one occurs. To find the parallel, look for an argument that sets up a binary choice (X or Y) where both X and Y lead to the same inevitable result. The content doesn't matter, but the 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' logic must be identical.