Parallel ReasoningDiff: Hardest

Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: Just because you have a few dreams that eventually come true doesn't mean you're psychic, because most of the time, your dreams have nothing to do with reality.

Conclusion: It is not logical to conclude that one possesses extrasensory perception based solely on a small number of dreams that happen to coincide with future events.

Reasoning: The overwhelming majority of dreams do not correspond to future events, making the few that do statistically insignificant anomalies.

Analysis: The structure of this argument relies on the idea that a few outliers are insufficient to prove a phenomenon when the vast majority of data points contradict it. To find a parallel, look for an argument that dismisses a specific cause (like ESP) by pointing out that the 'evidence' is likely just a rare coincidence within a much larger set of non-matching data. We are essentially looking for the logic of 'don't mistake a statistical fluke for a superpower.' It’s a classic lesson in not letting a small sample size distract you from the bigger picture.

Passage Stimulus

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26.

Which one of the following arguments is most similar in its reasoning to the argument above?

Correct Answer
D
D parallels the structure: Some aspirin users die prematurely (several matches), but it’s unreasonable to conclude aspirin is dangerous because most aspirin users do not die prematurely (base-rate rebuttal). This mirrors the dream argument’s “some hits” vs. “most misses” logic and the caution against a strong belief based solely on the hits.
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