Parallel ReasoningDiff: Hard
Logic Breakdown
Passage Summary: We only learn about how spies work when they get caught. Since the good ones never get caught, we have plenty of info on losers but almost none on winners.
Conclusion: Our understanding of what makes a spy successful is limited because we only have data on the failures.
Reasoning: Success is defined by not being detected, so the only spies we can study are the ones who were detected (the failures).
Analysis: The structure is: 'Success requires X (not being caught). We only observe Not-X (being caught). Therefore, we only have data on failures.' It's a selection bias argument. We need to find an answer where the very definition of success prevents the successful cases from being studied. It's the classic 'survivorship bias'—you can't study the planes that didn't return from battle to see where they weren't hit.
Conclusion: Our understanding of what makes a spy successful is limited because we only have data on the failures.
Reasoning: Success is defined by not being detected, so the only spies we can study are the ones who were detected (the failures).
Analysis: The structure is: 'Success requires X (not being caught). We only observe Not-X (being caught). Therefore, we only have data on failures.' It's a selection bias argument. We need to find an answer where the very definition of success prevents the successful cases from being studied. It's the classic 'survivorship bias'—you can't study the planes that didn't return from battle to see where they weren't hit.
Passage Stimulus
Passage Redacted
Unlock Full Passage23.Which one of the following arguments is most similar in its reasoning to the argument above?
Correct Answer
B
Like the spy case, people can articulate (reveal) conscious motives, while unconscious motives are not acknowledged (hidden). So we are more likely to hear about conscious motives—i.e., the available reports are skewed.
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