Passage Summary: Even though we are locking up way more people and spending more money on prisons, the crime rate hasn't dropped, so the reformer thinks prison doesn't work.

Conclusion: Increasing the number of people in prison is an ineffective method for reducing the crime rate.

Reasoning: Over the last two decades, both the percentage of the population in prison and spending on prisons have risen sharply, yet the crime rate has not decreased.

Analysis: The reformer is making a classic mistake by assuming that because the crime rate stayed the same, the increase in imprisonment had no effect. This ignores the 'counterfactual'—what would have happened to the crime rate if prison populations hadn't increased? It is possible that the crime rate would have exploded without those extra prisoners. Look for an answer that points out the failure to consider whether the crime rate would have been even higher otherwise.