Flawed ReasoningDiff: Hardest

Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: A journalist claims that small studies are more likely to be dramatic just because newspapers write about them more often than they write about big, reliable studies.

Conclusion: Small observational studies are more likely to yield dramatic results than large randomized trials.

Reasoning: Newspapers prioritize reporting dramatic findings and happen to report on small observational studies more frequently than large trials.

Analysis: The journalist commits a classic error by confusing the frequency of media coverage with the frequency of actual occurrence. Just because a newspaper selects small studies for their dramatic flair doesn't mean small studies are inherently more likely to be dramatic; it could simply be that the media ignores the boring small studies and the boring large ones alike. Look for an answer that identifies this failure to distinguish between what is reported and what is actually true in the broader scientific field. It's like assuming most people are celebrities just because you only see celebrities on the news.

Passage Stimulus

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20.

Which one of the following most accurately expresses a flaw in the journalist's reasoning?

Correct Answer
D
If small observational studies are far more common than large randomized trials, then newspapers reporting only dramatic findings could still feature more small studies without implying those studies are more likely to be dramatic. That’s the base-rate oversight in the argument.
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