Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: A strike is coming unless arbitration happens, but arbitration needs a specific agreement that the union probably won't sign, so a strike is the probable outcome.

Conclusion: A strike at AutoFaber Inc. is likely to occur.

Reasoning: A strike will happen unless there is independent arbitration, which requires both sides to agree to binding terms—an agreement the union is unlikely to make.

Analysis: The structure here is a conditional chain involving probability: X will happen unless Y occurs. Y can only occur if Z happens. Z is unlikely to happen. Therefore, X is likely. When looking for a parallel, ensure the answer choice maintains this 'unless' structure and the shift from a requirement to a probability. We are essentially looking for a 'failure to meet a necessary condition' that leads back to a predicted outcome.

Passage Stimulus

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25.

Which one of the following arguments exhibits a pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited by the journalist's argument?

Correct Answer
D
D matches the structure: Lopez will win only if a necessary condition (proper hydration) is met; the sponsors are poor at providing it (so that condition is unlikely to be satisfied); therefore, it is probable Lopez will not win. This mirrors the journalist’s ‘avoid-bad-outcome only if C; C unlikely; bad outcome likely’ pattern and retains the probabilistic language.
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