Passage Summary: A critic says going to Mars is too dangerous, but the author argues that because every individual part of the trip is made safe by backups, the whole trip is safe.

Conclusion: The critic's claim that Mars explorers are unlikely to survive the journey is an exaggeration of the actual risk.

Reasoning: The journey would include backup systems at every stage, and a fatal accident is very unlikely to occur at any single stage when such systems are present.

Analysis: The author commits a classic error by failing to consider the cumulative risk of a multi-stage process. Even if the chance of failure at any one stage is low, those small probabilities add up over a 'long and complicated' journey. Look for an answer that points out how a series of unlikely events can collectively become a likely event. It is the logical equivalent of saying a coin flip is unlikely to land on heads ten times in a row, so the whole sequence is safe.