Parallel ReasoningDiff: Medium
Logic Breakdown
Passage Summary: If Juan shows up, Maria usually has a bad time. Since Maria actually had a good time, Juan probably wasn't there.
Conclusion: It is highly probable that Juan did not attend the party.
Reasoning: If Juan had attended, it is very unlikely Maria would have had a good time; however, she did enjoy herself.
Analysis: This argument utilizes a probabilistic form of 'modus tollens.' It establishes a conditional relationship where the presence of one factor makes an outcome very unlikely, then notes that the outcome occurred anyway to conclude the factor was likely absent. When looking for a match, prioritize an answer choice that maintains this 'highly unlikely' or 'probable' qualifier rather than one that deals in absolute certainties. The structure is: If A, then probably Not B; B is true; therefore, probably Not A.
Conclusion: It is highly probable that Juan did not attend the party.
Reasoning: If Juan had attended, it is very unlikely Maria would have had a good time; however, she did enjoy herself.
Analysis: This argument utilizes a probabilistic form of 'modus tollens.' It establishes a conditional relationship where the presence of one factor makes an outcome very unlikely, then notes that the outcome occurred anyway to conclude the factor was likely absent. When looking for a match, prioritize an answer choice that maintains this 'highly unlikely' or 'probable' qualifier rather than one that deals in absolute certainties. The structure is: If A, then probably Not B; B is true; therefore, probably Not A.
Passage Stimulus
Passage Redacted
Unlock Full Passage14.The pattern of reasoning in the argument above is most similar to that in which one of the following?
Correct Answer
D
D matches the pattern exactly: If Clarissa missed the bus, it’s quite unlikely she’d be on time. But she was on time. So, it’s quite unlikely she missed the bus. Same probabilistic-contrapositive structure as the original.
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