Passage Summary: Because the country had food shortages and high prices during a crisis—things that usually happen when it doesn't rain—the weather must be to blame for the whole mess.

Conclusion: Weather conditions were a primary factor in the development of the nation's recent crisis.

Reasoning: The crisis involved failing crops and rising prices, which are known consequences of insufficient rainfall.

Analysis: This argument commits a 'sufficient vs. necessary' flaw, or more simply, it assumes that because a cause *can* produce an effect, it *must* be the cause in this specific instance. While bad weather causes crop failure, so do locusts, soil depletion, or war. The author ignores these alternative possibilities. Look for an answer that criticizes the argument for assuming that a particular set of symptoms must have been caused by one specific factor just because that factor is a known cause of those symptoms.