Passage Summary: A supervisor believes their next budget will pass simply because they have lost five times in a row and the overall success rate is fifty percent.

Conclusion: The upcoming budget proposal is likely to be accepted.

Reasoning: The vice president typically approves half of all proposals, and since the last five attempts were rejected, a success is due to balance the average.

Analysis: This argument is a textbook example of the Gambler's Fallacy. The supervisor treats independent events—individual budget reviews—as if they are mathematically linked to 'even out' over a short period. In reality, the vice president's past rejections don't magically increase the odds of a future approval. Look for an answer that identifies this unwarranted assumption that a streak of bad luck must be followed by good luck to maintain a statistical average.