Passage Summary: If a play lasts over three months, it's either a hit with the money-makers or the critics. Last year, every play the critics liked also made money. Therefore, every long-running play last year must have made money.

Conclusion: Every new play that lasted more than three months last year was a commercial success.

Reasoning: Long-running plays are either commercial or critical successes, and last year, every critical success was also a commercial success.

Analysis: This argument follows a valid deductive structure: If A, then (B or C). If C, then B. Therefore, if A, then B. The logic works because if the play must be one of two things, and one of those things automatically implies the other, then the second thing is guaranteed. When looking for a parallel, focus on this 'collapsing' of two options into one certain outcome. Do not get distracted by the subject matter of plays or success; focus purely on the conditional 'either/or' relationship where one side necessitates the other.