Passage Summary: Scientists used to think global warming would definitely mean more hurricanes because of hot water, but new evidence suggests other weather changes will prevent that from happening.

Conclusion: The early prediction that global warming would result in more frequent and intense tropical storms is probably incorrect.

Reasoning: While warmer oceans provide the necessary fuel for storms, other atmospheric factors like wind instabilities are expected to cancel out those effects.

Analysis: To identify the conclusion here, look for the author's pivot away from the 'early discussions.' The phrase 'But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out' marks the shift from background context to the author's main point. The first two sentences set the stage by explaining the old theory, while the final sentence provides the evidence for why that old theory is now doubted. Focus strictly on the claim being defended, which is the rejection of the earlier prediction.