Flawed ReasoningDiff: Medium
Logic Breakdown
Passage Summary: More people die while following the rules than while breaking them, so the author thinks breaking the rules is safer.
Conclusion: It is safer for pedestrians to cross against the traffic light than with it.
Reasoning: Statistics show that a higher total number of pedestrians are killed annually when crossing with the light than when crossing against it.
Analysis: This argument falls into the 'base rate' trap by confusing absolute numbers with relative risk. If 99% of people cross with the light, even a very low fatality rate will result in a higher total number of deaths compared to the tiny group of people crossing against the light. To judge 'danger,' we need the percentage of deaths per crossing, not just the raw body count. Expect an answer that points out the author's failure to consider the total number of people in each crossing category.
Conclusion: It is safer for pedestrians to cross against the traffic light than with it.
Reasoning: Statistics show that a higher total number of pedestrians are killed annually when crossing with the light than when crossing against it.
Analysis: This argument falls into the 'base rate' trap by confusing absolute numbers with relative risk. If 99% of people cross with the light, even a very low fatality rate will result in a higher total number of deaths compared to the tiny group of people crossing against the light. To judge 'danger,' we need the percentage of deaths per crossing, not just the raw body count. Expect an answer that points out the author's failure to consider the total number of people in each crossing category.
Passage Stimulus
Passage Redacted
Unlock Full Passage22.The columnist's reasoning is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it
Correct Answer
E
E correctly identifies the flaw: the argument ignores possible differences in how often people cross with the light versus against it. Without knowing the frequencies, you cannot infer relative danger from absolute numbers of deaths.
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