Passage Summary: A journalist claims a new education-focused party will fail because the percentage of people willing to join and the percentage willing to donate are both individually below the 30 percent threshold required for survival.

Conclusion: It is improbable that a political party focused on education will be successful in the long run.

Reasoning: Long-term viability requires at least 30 percent of voters to either join or donate, but only 26 percent would join this party and only 16 percent would donate to it.

Analysis: The journalist fails to account for the potential overlap—or lack thereof—between the two groups mentioned. The viability rule requires 30 percent to *either* join *or* donate. If the 26 percent who would join and the 16 percent who would donate are largely different people, the total percentage of supporters would easily exceed the 30 percent requirement. The argument incorrectly assumes these two groups must be nested within each other rather than being distinct sets of people.