Flawed ReasoningDiff: Medium

Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: An advocate claims your car's model determines its theft risk because the same car model has been the 'most stolen' for two years in a row.

Conclusion: The specific model of a car is a significant factor in determining the likelihood of that car being stolen.

Reasoning: The car model that was stolen most frequently last year was also the model stolen most frequently the year before.

Analysis: This argument suffers from a classic 'total vs. rate' flaw. The advocate assumes that because a model is stolen most often, it must be because that model is more attractive or easier to steal. However, if that model is simply the most common car on the road, it would naturally be stolen more often even if it were harder to steal than other models. Look for an answer that points out the advocate's failure to account for the total number of cars of that model in circulation. It's like saying 'more people die in hospitals, so hospitals are dangerous'—it ignores the base rate.

Passage Stimulus

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8.

The consumer advocate's reasoning is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

Correct Answer
A
“Most stolen” can be driven by how many such cars exist, not by a higher theft probability for each car. The argument doesn’t address the possibility that the most-stolen model is also the most common, which undermines the move from counts to chances.
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