Passage Summary: Some scientists say big space rocks hit Earth every 100 million years on average. Since it's been about that long since the last one, the author thinks we're 'due' for another one soon and should pay for a defense system.

Conclusion: We should fund programs to protect Earth from meteorites because a major strike is likely to occur soon.

Reasoning: Large meteorites hit Earth every 100 million years on average, and since the last one was nearly 100 million years ago, another strike is expected in the near future.

Analysis: The author is falling for a classic statistical trap often called the 'Gambler's Fallacy.' Just because an event happens once every 100 million years 'on average' does not mean the events are scheduled or that we are 'overdue' for one. The flaw lies in treating a long-term statistical average as a precise clock for individual random events. Look for an answer that points out that the probability of a strike occurring soon isn't necessarily higher just because a lot of time has passed.