Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: Harrold Foods wants to lead the market, and since most people think they already do, the author assumes they must actually have over half the sales.

Conclusion: Harrold Foods currently dominates the soft-drink market and only needs to maintain its current share to remain dominant.

Reasoning: A survey shows 72 percent of consumers believe the product 'Hero' dominates the market, and the technical definition of dominance is having more than 50 percent of sales.

Analysis: This argument suffers from a classic 'opinion vs. fact' error. The author defines 'dominance' using a hard statistical metric (over 50% of sales) but then attempts to prove that this metric has been met using consumer perception (72% of people *think* it's dominant). It’s a bit like saying that because most people believe a certain celebrity is the richest person in the world, that celebrity must actually have the highest bank balance. Look for an answer that identifies this failure to distinguish between what people believe to be true and what is objectively, mathematically true.

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13.

The argument commits which one of the following errors in reasoning?

Correct Answer
D
The argument takes survey evidence that a claim is believed (that Hero dominates) as evidence that the claim is true (that Hero/Harrold in fact dominates per the >50% sales standard). That is exactly the error described in D.
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