Passage Summary: Bureaucracies are designed to stay exactly as they are. Because of this design, we shouldn't expect them to get any simpler, even if people are frustrated with how complicated they have become.

Conclusion: It is improbable that bureaucratic systems will be made less complex in the future.

Reasoning: The inherent design of bureaucratic mechanisms is specifically intended to prevent changes from occurring.

Analysis: This is a classic two-sentence argument where the first sentence provides the 'why' and the second sentence provides the 'therefore.' The claim in question is the very first sentence, which acts as the foundational premise. It explains the mechanism that makes the predicted outcome—the conclusion—likely to occur. It is a bit ironic that we've engineered systems to be stubborn, but that's the logical heart of the author's pessimism here.