Passage Summary: Some experts suggest you should only change your mind when you have proof something is wrong; the author argues this is bad advice because you'd eventually run out of beliefs and die.

Conclusion: The statisticians' advice on how to maintain a set of beliefs is incorrect.

Reasoning: Following only the rule of rejecting beliefs based on evidence leads to a shrinking pool of beliefs, which eventually threatens survival.

Analysis: The author is attacking a 'straw man' version of the statisticians' claim. The statisticians said this is the best way to increase correctness, not that it is the only rule one should ever follow for survival. Furthermore, the argument assumes that we never gain new beliefs, but the statisticians' rule was specifically about how to change an existing set, not necessarily how to acquire one. Look for an answer that points out the author is ignoring the possibility of adding new beliefs or is misinterpreting the goal of the statisticians' rule. It's a bit like saying a diet is 'wrong' because if you only ever stopped eating junk food, you'd eventually starve—it ignores the fact that you can still eat healthy food!