Passage Summary: If the government gives more money to science, private donors will pull back their funding, so the government should keep its spending flat to avoid shrinking the total budget.

Conclusion: The government should refrain from increasing its funding for civilian scientific research to prevent a decline in the total amount of funding available.

Reasoning: Increased government funding leads private patrons to believe research is no longer their responsibility, causing them to reduce their own contributions.

Analysis: The author identifies a 'crowding out' effect where government spending replaces private spending. However, there is a significant logical gap: the author assumes that the private sector's reduction will be equal to or greater than the government's increase. If the government adds $10 million and private donors only cut $5 million, the total funding still goes up. The argument *needs* to assume that the private decrease will be significant enough to actually 'depress' the overall level of funding.