Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: If you have a big lottery, any one person is likely to lose, so the argument claims that nobody will win at all.

Conclusion: It is logical to conclude that there will be no winner in the lottery.

Reasoning: Since each individual ticket has a very high probability of losing, we can assume the collective outcome is that everyone loses.

Analysis: This is a classic 'error of composition' where what is true of the parts is incorrectly applied to the whole. Even if every individual ticket is likely to lose, we know for a fact that one of them must win, making the conclusion a logical impossibility. Look for an answer choice that takes a high probability for individual components and uses it to claim a zero probability for the group outcome.

Passage Stimulus

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3.

Which one of the following exhibits flawed reasoning most similar to the flawed reasoning in the argument above?

Correct Answer
A
A matches the structure: each individual draw is unlikely to be an ace, so the conclusion that an ace will never be drawn repeats the same flawed shift from individual unlikelihood to universal impossibility.
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