Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: Since heat leads to humidity and humidity leads to rain, the fact that it's raining more must mean it's getting hotter.

Conclusion: The recent increase in global rainfall is strong evidence that air temperatures are rising.

Reasoning: Warm air tends to be humid, and higher humidity leads to an increase in rainfall.

Analysis: This argument commits a conditional logic error by confusing a sufficient condition for a necessary one. It establishes that Heat (A) leads to Humidity (B), and Humidity (B) leads to Rain (C), then concludes that because we have Rain (C), we must have Heat (A). In abstract terms, the flaw is: 'If A then B, and if B then C; therefore, if C then A.' Look for an answer choice that follows this exact 'A to B to C, so C to A' structure.

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17.

Which one of the following has a flawed pattern of reasoning most similar to the flawed pattern of reasoning in the argument above?

Correct Answer
A
It mirrors the chain: fresher food tends to be more nutritious (A -> B), and more nutritious diets make people healthier (B -> C). Observing that people are healthier now (C), it concludes people today likely eat fresher food (A). That’s the same flawed move of inferring an upstream cause from a downstream effect across a chain of tendencies.
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