Passage Summary: A writer suggests you should fly with airlines that recently crashed because, based on averages, those that haven't crashed lately are more likely to crash soon.

Conclusion: A vacationer should pick an airline that has had an accident in the last five years.

Reasoning: Since the average airline has one accident every five years, an airline that hasn't crashed recently is statistically 'due' for one, making it more dangerous.

Analysis: This argument is a textbook example of the Gambler's Fallacy. It treats independent events—airline crashes—as if they are linked by a cosmic scoreboard that forces an outcome to happen just to maintain a long-term average. In reality, an airline's past safety record doesn't make a future crash more or less likely in the way the author describes. To find a parallel, look for an answer choice that assumes a random event is 'due' to happen simply because it hasn't occurred in a while.