Logic Breakdown

Passage Summary: Countries usually hit a peak pollution level at a certain wealth point and then start cleaning up as they get even richer; since Country X just hit that wealth point, it should start getting cleaner soon.

Conclusion: Pollution leaching in Country X is expected to decrease within the next few years.

Reasoning: Country X has reached a per capita output of $5,000, which is the historical peak for pollution before industrial development provides the resources to fix the problem.

Analysis: The argument relies on the assumption that Country X will actually continue to develop economically. The premises state that pollution diminishes as *increasing* industrial development generates resources, but if Country X's economy stalls or shrinks at the $5,000 mark, it may never generate the resources needed to reduce leaching. It is a bit like assuming a teenager will eventually grow out of their awkward phase; that only happens if they keep growing. Look for an answer that bridges the gap between Country X's current wealth and the future economic growth required to trigger the cleanup phase.

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13.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

Correct Answer
C
Industrial development in Country X will increase in the next few years is required for the forecast that problems should begin to diminish in the next few years. Negation test: If industrial development in Country X will not increase in the next few years, then the country may remain at the peak-severity stage, and the conclusion that problems should soon diminish is undermined. Thus, C is necessary.
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