Passage Summary: People are gossiping about a cabinet change, but because the usual pre-game meetings haven't happened yet, the change probably isn't coming.

Conclusion: The current rumors regarding a cabinet reshuffle are likely incorrect.

Reasoning: Historically, every cabinet reshuffle by the Premier was preceded by meetings with senior members, but no such meetings have occurred or are planned.

Analysis: This argument uses a historical pattern to predict a future outcome, specifically employing a form of 'if-then' logic. It establishes that a certain event (meetings) is a necessary precursor to another event (a reshuffle). Since the precursor is missing, the argument concludes the event itself is unlikely. Look for a principle that states if a condition that has always accompanied an event in the past is absent, it is reasonable to doubt that the event will occur.