WeakenDiff: Medium
Logic Breakdown
Passage Summary: People switched from oil to gas because of prices and laws. Because they spent a lot of money on their new gas heaters, they probably won't want to spend more money to switch back to oil anytime soon.
Conclusion: It is improbable that a large number of homeowners will return to using oil for heating in the near future.
Reasoning: Homeowners previously invested significant capital into natural gas equipment, creating a financial barrier to switching back to oil.
Analysis: The argument relies on the assumption that the initial investment in gas equipment is the primary factor preventing a return to oil. To weaken this, we need to find a compelling reason why homeowners would ignore that 'sunk cost' or why the cost of switching back might be lower than expected. Look for an answer that suggests oil has become drastically cheaper or that natural gas has become prohibitively expensive or unreliable. If the savings from switching back to oil outweigh the cost of new equipment, the 'unlikely' prediction loses its sting.
Conclusion: It is improbable that a large number of homeowners will return to using oil for heating in the near future.
Reasoning: Homeowners previously invested significant capital into natural gas equipment, creating a financial barrier to switching back to oil.
Analysis: The argument relies on the assumption that the initial investment in gas equipment is the primary factor preventing a return to oil. To weaken this, we need to find a compelling reason why homeowners would ignore that 'sunk cost' or why the cost of switching back might be lower than expected. Look for an answer that suggests oil has become drastically cheaper or that natural gas has become prohibitively expensive or unreliable. If the savings from switching back to oil outweigh the cost of new equipment, the 'unlikely' prediction loses its sting.
Passage Stimulus
Passage Redacted
Unlock Full Passage9.The prediction that ends the passage would be most seriously called into question if it were true that in the last few years
Correct Answer
D
If oil-heating equipment has fallen sharply in cost and oil is now cheaper to heat with than natural gas, then both the upfront switching barrier and the ongoing operating-cost disadvantage are removed. That makes a significant switch back to oil financially attractive, directly challenging the prediction.
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